This is the question every new member asks, and the honest answer today is that nobody knows — because there is not yet enough history to produce a figure that would mean anything.
Why no number is given
Applications before a first win is one of the measures Knomart has committed to publishing. It has not been published because the community is young, and an average drawn from a small early group would tell you about those particular people rather than about you.
Publishing a modelled figure as though it were achieved is the specific failure this approach exists to avoid. A number invented to be reassuring would be worse than no number.
What actually determines your answer
- Opportunity density near you — how many businesses are posting work within reach
- Whether your skills match what they post, which is a different question from whether your skills are good
- Your Profile Strength — completeness, verified identity, badges, and later, ratings
- How many others applied for the same posting
- How selective you are — applying to everything and applying to what fits produce different outcomes
The hardest part is the beginning
Merchant ratings carry the most weight in ranking, and a new member has none. That is the genuine disadvantage of starting, and the way through it is the part you can control: complete the profile, verify identity, and earn badges. Those are the components available to someone who has never worked here.
What to do with the waiting
Treat it as preparation rather than delay. Courses are included in membership at every tier, community micro-tasks build Profile Strength and sometimes pay, and each of those makes the next application stronger. Waiting passively is the only version of this that leads nowhere.
What will be published
Applications before first win, the share of members who earn anything at all, and opportunity density per estate — with their real values, whatever those turn out to be.
